Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
