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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. However, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

Yet this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and longtime underperformers improving in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still